Morning Market Commentary (8 September 2008, Monday)


Major Indexes

Last day's close

 

 

Close

High

Low

Net change

Pct change

U.S. DOW

11220.96

11245.15

11037.85

+32.73

+0.29%

U.S. NASDAQ

2255.88

2264.35

2216.99

-3.16

-0.14%

U.S. S&P500

1242.31

1243.89

1220.35

+5.48

+0.44%

U.K. FTSE100

5240.701

5359.30

5227.60

-121.40

-2.26%

GERMANY DAX

6127.44

6253.40

6095.56

-152.13

-2.42%

FRANCE CAC40

4196.66

4288.31

4181.61

-107.35

-2.49%

 

US Market

Ø       Stocks ended mixed Friday after a tough session and week, as a rally in the hard-hit financial sector countered amplified recession fears that were sparked by a weak labor market report.

Ø       Bond prices edged lower, raising the corresponding yields, while the dollar strengthened versus the euro and yen. Oil prices settled at a five-month low, while gold and other commodity prices also declined modestly.

Ø       After the close, reports surfaced that the Treasury Department is close to announcing a plan to help troubled mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Ø       The plan, which could be announced as soon as this weekend, is expected to include a capital injection and changes to senior management at both firms, the Wall Street Journal reported. The two government-sponsored firms own or back about half the mortgage debt in the country. Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) shares fell 18% in extended-hours trading, while Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) shares lost 10%.

Ø       All three major gauges fell through the morning Friday but managed to recover in the afternoon as the financial sector turned around. Financial stocks make up the second biggest sector in the S&P 500, after technology, so a rally can help improve the overall market.

Ø       For the week, all three major gauges slipped. The Dow declined 2.8%, the Nasdaq lost 4.7% and the S&P 500 lost 3.2%

Ø       The unemployment rate surged to a five-year high of 6.1% in August, as employers cut jobs from their payrolls for the eighth straight month amid the weak economy. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the unemployment rate would hold steady at July levels of 5.7%.

Ø       Average hourly earnings, the report's inflation component, rose 0.4% after rising a revised 0.4% in July. Economists were looking for average hourly earnings to rise 0.3%, on average.

Ø       In other economic news, a record 1.25 million homes were in foreclosure during the second quarter of 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Ø       Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by a narrow margin on volume of 1.2 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers seven to six on volume of around 2.27 billion shares.

Ø       U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell $1.66 to settle at $106.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after ending the previous session at a five-month low.

Ø       Gas prices declined for a fifth straight day, according to a national survey of credit-card activity.

Ø       The recent decline in driving has cut into the federal Highway Trust Fund, prompting the government to ask Congress for an $8 billion emergency infusion Friday.

Ø       In the bond market, Treasury prices gave up early gains and turned lower. The decline lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.64% from 3.62% late Thursday. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Ø       The dollar gained versus the euro, hitting its highest point against the European currency since October of last year. The dollar also hit its highest level against the British pound in two years. But the greenback was flat versus the yen.

Ø       COMEX gold for December delivery fell 40 cents to settle at $802.80 an ounce.

 

v        Sources from money.cnn.com


US economic reports release this week (Sep 08 to Sep 12):
Monday, 08 Sep:          Consumer Credit (Jul)

Tuesday, 09 Sep:         Pending Home Sales (Jul)
                                 
Wholesale Inventories (Jul)

Wednesday, 10 Sep:    Crude Inventories (09/06)

Thursday, 11 Sep:        Export prices ex-ag. (Aug)
                                 
Import Prices ex-oil (Aug)
                                 
Initial Claims (09/06)
                                 
Trade Balance (Jul)
                                 
Treasury Budget (Aug)

Friday, 12 Sep:            Core PPI (Aug)
                                 
PPI (Aug)
                                 
Retail Sales (Aug)
                                 
Retail Sales ex-auto (Aug)
                                 
Business Inventories (Jul)
                                 
Mich Sentiment-Prel. (Sep)

 

HK Market

Last day's close

Hang Seng Index

May Futures

June Futures

 

Close

19,933.28
 (-456.20)

Close

19,693
 (-547)

Close

19,710
 (-535)

 

High

19,987.15

Open

19,750

Volume

766

 

Low

19,708.39

High

19,925

Moving Average

 

Turnover

65,267.511M

Low

19,621

10-Day

20,871.69

 

Advanced

938

Volume

73,319

20-Day

21,034.37

 

Declined

2,507

Open-Interest

121,985
 (+4,360)

50-Day

21,701.66

 

Unchanged

1,849

250-Day

24,845.70

 

 

 

Ø       HK stock opened slightly lower after an overnight fall in Wall Street and weakened performance in Tokyo sock this morning. Hang Seng index opened down 555-points at 19,834. Then its move between 19,800 and 19,950-point level o during the day.

Ø       HKHSI closed down 456.20-point, or 2.24% to 19,933.28 off a high of 19,987.15 and a low of 19,708.39. The market turnovers were $65.268 billion.

Ø       Out of 43 Hang Seng Index constituent shares, 7 stocks were up, while 35 stocks were down. 1 stock kept unchanged.

Ø       Property counters were also down; Cheung Kong [#1] closed down 5.74% to $105.10; Henderson Land [#12] lost 6.22% to $43.75; SHKP [#16] fell 6.12% to $95.10; New World [#17] tumbled 1.23% to $11.20; Sino Land [#83] dropped 5.54% to $12.28.

Ø       The financial stocks were also down, Index heavyweight HSBC [#5] closed down 3.38% to $117.30; Hang Seng Bank [#11] fell 0.40% to $149.90; BOC HK [#2388] dropped 0.58% to $17.02 and HKEX [#388] tumbled 3.05% to $95.50.

Ø       Among the conglomerate stocks, Index heavyweight Hutchison Whampoa [#13] closed down 2.26% to $69.35; China Mobile [#941] dropped 2.38% to $82 and Citic Pacific [#267] lost 2.92% to $24.90.

Ø       Oil-related plays were also down; PetroChina [#857] closed down 2.61% to $9.33; Sinopec [#386] lost 1.93% to $7.10; CNOOC [#883] dropped 1.51% to $10.44; China Oilfield [#2883] fell 3.00% to $8.74; and CNPC (HK) [#135] tumbled 1.91% to $3.08.

Ø       Mainland banking stocks were also down, ICBC [#1398] closed down 1.74% to $5.09; CCB [#939] lost 2.12% to $6.00; Bank of Communications [#3328] tumbled 2.08% to $8.47; China Merchant Bank [#3968] fell 3.11% to $23.40; BOC [#3988] 0.30% to $3.30 and Citic Bank [#998] tumbled 3.75% to $4.11.

Ø       Among the mainland insurance stocks, China Ping An [#2318] closed down 1.75% to $53.30; China Life [#2628] lost 1.91% to $28.30 And PICC Property & Casualty [#2328] dropped 3.98% to $4.10.

Ø       Among constituent share of the China Enterprises index, Datang Power [#991] was the best performer, up 1.45% to $4.91, Guangshen Rail [#525] was the worst performer, down 9.43% to $3.17.

Ø       The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed down 229.05-point, or 2.10% to 10,695.86-points. The China Affiliated Index closed down 81.44-point, or 2.09% to 3,822.10-points.

 

Top 5 Hang Seng Index Movers

Gain

Loss

1

FIH [#2038]

+3.52%

1

Henderson Land [#12]

-6.22%

2

CLP Holding [#2]

+2.92%

2

SHK Properties [#16]

-6.12%

3

Esprit Holdings [#330]

+1.87%

3

Cheung Kong [#1]

-5.74%

4

China Netcom [#906]

+1.29%

4

Sino Land [#83]

-5.54%

5

HK Electric [#6]

+1.22%

5

TENCENT [#700]

-5.39%


Market Outlook
The broader U.S. stock market edged higher on Friday, but still posted its worst week since May, as a rally in financial stocks helped reverse losses sparked by a government report showing the U.S. jobless rate rose to a five-year high.

The Hong Kong Index closed down 456.20-point or 2.24% to 19,933.28; Share prices closed sharply lower, with the key index ending below the 20,000-points level for the first time in 17 months, following a sell-off on Wall Street as fears grew about the health of the US economy. Investors were also nervous after another slide on mainland markets, a Goldman Sachs downgrade of Hong Kong's GDP growth forecasts and upcoming US jobs data. As good news for Fannie and Freddie on Sunday, we believe that the HK market will move between 20,300 and 20,600 point level on Monday.

Hang Seng Index Trading Range: 20,300 to 20,600

Confidence for the above forecast (1-3, with 3 the highest): 2

 

   Note :  

Investors should note that all information mentioned above is for reference only.

   Stock Markets Weekly Report
   Financial Commentaries (Chinese version only)

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